HOW PITCHIQ WORKS

Every number on this site comes from a real calculation. This page explains exactly how — no black boxes.

FIXTURE DIFFICULTY RATINGS

The Fixture Ticker uses three independent difficulty models, not just FPL's own FDR. You can switch between them with the view controls.

Overall (FPL's own ratings)

The default view uses FPL's official difficulty values — the same numbers visible on the FPL website. We display these as-is because they're what managers are already familiar with.

Attacking difficulty (xG model)

For attackers and midfielders, this rating tells you how leaky the opponent's defence has been — combining their season-long xGC with their last 5 games, weighted toward recent form. Home advantage is factored in. A green rating means the opponent has been conceding chances freely.

Defensive difficulty (xG model)

For defenders and goalkeepers, this rating tells you how dangerous the opponent's attack has been — again blending season and recent xG, adjusted for home and away. A green rating means the opponent has struggled to create chances.

The 1–5 difficulty buckets

Buckets use percentile thresholds rather than equal intervals, so roughly the bottom 15% of fixture scores become a 1, next 20% a 2, and so on. This prevents ratings clustering in the middle.

CAPTAIN SCORE

The Captain Picker ranks players using a composite score across three signals — recent form, FPL's own predicted points for the next gameweek, and ICT index. Expected points is weighted most heavily because it already accounts for fixture difficulty and form. Form and ICT are added to capture recent momentum and goal threat that predicted points can sometimes lag on.

The result is a single ranked list. The higher the score, the stronger the captain recommendation for your specific gameweek.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS